So… I was wrong… again…
There were no fireworks after we pushed through the 12.2k level in BTC$. To me, it looks like the market has decided to move in an orderly manner instead of the usual cryptomania style.
The term and funding bases of the major coins have not switched into overdrive. In fact, some of the bases have relaxed. To me, this indicates that we have steady cash buying interest in the market. This aligns with what we have seen at our desk in terms of client flows.
By the way, we will not chart any of the DeFi coins. There are not enough data points (for most of them) and their price actions are very hard to chart (in some cases it is even impossible).
Now, let’s dive into the charts:
So far so good. We managed to push through the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud at 11.5k, with a decent volume profile (looking at volume per date: horizontal). On the volume per price (vertical) we are seeing a region of very light volume. The next large liquidity pool comes in at 14k.
Everything on this chart looks bullish. However, there is no FOMO-style price action (as mentioned earlier in our report). This is something I like since it gives the more traditional investors a chance for exposure. Due to the lack of followthrough buying after we broke the 12.2k level, I see a good chance of a pullback towards 11.5-11.8k.
On the daily heatmaps there is not much added value visible. If anything, it looks like there are some more sellers with steady orders on Bitfinex, and better buyers on OKEx (around 11.8k, there is a steady buy order of roughly 500 BTC).
On the 4h heatmap from Binance we see some larger sell orders in the 12.5k area. It sort of makes sense when I look at the 4h chart (local top) that this is the level we need to take out to get some more fresh momentum to the upside.
When I look at the weekly chart it reminds me of how much more upside potential there is.
The Ichimoku cloud is still bearish and the cloud itself is still very wide. After we take out the $380 level I think a good next level to target is $500.
The move is strong and steep. The breakout of the large triangle was accompanied by good volume. I would like to see a longer consolidation phase somewhere in the area of $400-$450. In case we drop below $380, I will reduce some long exposure.
On the heatmaps we see slightly better buying interest with some orderblocks at around the current levels: $420.
I have put in an alert at $402 in case we see some weakness in the market. I do not want to set straight buy orders since I am already long and I need to feel the market at that point. I will miss the quick wicks but I can live with that.
There is a very similar setup for ETH$. There is still some massive potential to the upside. My next target on the upside is 0.04100. It will take some time, but to me it is a good trade to have some „long“ exposure but with less volatility.
To see this uptrend continue smoothly I would like to see some consolidation between 0.03500-0.03800. The past month has seen a very steep price action. In case we go below 0.03100 I will reconsider my long position.