deenfr

Technical Analysis Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Tokens on Our Radar

We’re pleased to share the technical analysis from our Trading Team, and technical analysis below from Rolf Bertschi, Chart Outlook.

BTC$ (daily)
We are sorry to say that there has been no real change in terms of both our medium to long term view. However, our bullish case is still intact. We are within the ascending triangle and have some more room to move sideways.

The first resistance is still 4,200-4,250, and a proper change in trend will be initiated when we trade (and have a daily close) above 4,600. This will pave the way up to the 6k zone (high volume range).

BTC$ Daily

ETH$ (daily)
No news here either. We are still in the ascending triangle, which is a bullish pattern. As with BTC$, we have some more room to move sideways.
The first resistance to take out is 165, which will lead the way to the resistance zone of 200-230.

The downside level to watch is 115, where we think a bullish turn is unlikely and all long positions should be reassessed.

ETHUSD Daily

ETHBTC (daily)
We think the market needs to decide which way it wants to go. We have already reached higher lows, but we are failing to make higher highs. Currently, we are right at the bullish trend line (black), which is not a very strong line as we just touched it for the 3rd time.

If we are not able to hold this trend line we see a higher risk that we will return to the recent lows. If the 0.02980 does not hold (recent lows), the wave structure will turn bearish again and we will reassess long positions.

ETHBTC Daily

LTC$ (daily)
The impulsive rally has stalled a bit. It is a good sign that we managed to push through the resistance zone. And some consolidation at current levels is definitely healthy.
There is even room for a correction further down in the low 50s area, and the bullish trend is still intact.

Our target to the upside is still around 70 USD.

LTC$ Daily

LTCBTC (daily)
The impulsive bullish trend is still ongoing. The only major difference to LTC$ is that we were rejected just below the resistance zone, which is also the 50% fib level of the major down move from December 2017. To get some fresh momentum to the upside, we need to push into the resistance zone.

The first support level comes in at around 0.0140, which is also the 38.2% fib level.

LTCBTC Daily

ADABTC (daily)
The ascending triangle break out happened with good volume. A pullback or consolidation is healthy and is also a good opportunity to get a second leg in establishing long positions. A move down back into the triangle would erase the bullish setup. Stops for long positions should be set around the upper leg of the triangle.

Our upside target is around 0.00001900.

ADABTC Daily

Chart Outlook – Rolf Bertschi

Additionally, as part of our ongoing exchange, we are pleased to share a chart with technical analysis for BTC$, created by Rolf Bertschi, Chart Outlook.

Bitcoin / US Dollar – Rolf Bertschi, Chart Outlook

Technical Analysis for Tuesday, March 19, 2019

It’s TA Tuesday, with tons of charts this time.

We’re pleased to share this technical analysis from the Crypto Broker trading floor.

BTC$ (daily)
The ascending triangle is still in place and the setup is looking promising. After we touched the upper leg for a third time at around 4,200, we only retraced into the middle part of the triangle. The base line (blue) has acted as support. This puts us now in the perfect spot to attack the upper leg again. A materialised triangle pattern should never start from the bottom leg; it should start from the middle part.

Another indication to watch is the Ichimoku cloud, which is very close to turning bullish. We have not seen that for over 12 months.

BTC$ Daily

ETH$ (daily)
The setup here is very similar to that of BTC$. We are also in a potential ascending triangle. The base line (blue) has been acting as a support over the past few weeks.

The Ichimoku cloud has already turned bullish after a depressing 12 months of bearish sentiment.

Now is the time to attack the upper leg at $163. This could open up the path toward the $200 level. The next big liquidity pool comes in at around $220, where it will get tough to break through.

ETH$ Daily

ETHBTC (daily)
On this chart, we see that it is crunch time. We are just at the bullish trend line (black), which is also converging with the upper band of the bullish Ichimoku cloud. If we fail that trend line, the next support will come in at around 0.033. The bullish setup is valid as long we can hold the recent low levels (red).

We made higher lows, but failed to make higher highs after that. The last high was just below 0.04. We need to take that out and push toward the last higher high at around 0.0415.

ETHBTC Daily

LTC$ (daily)
We have been bullish on LTC for a while now. The base forming was text book. The support level at around $30 was formed with massive volume (a large liquidity pool was formed), and the follow through came with an even higher volume.

Since the gap between price bars and the Ichimoku cloud is fairly wide the probability has increased that we could see some setbacks into the resistance zone.

The next target area we see is at around $75 (green).

LTC$ Daily

LTCBTC (daily)
We have seen a remarkable comeback of LTC versus BTC. We have almost corrected 50% of the bear market since the top in March 2018.

That 50% fibonacci level converges with our resistance zone, which is also a respectable liquidity pool.
Additionally we are also seeing a significant gap between the price bars and the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud. Due to this, we would not be surprised to see some setbacks before attacking the resistance zone again.

LTCBTC Daily

BCHUSD (daily)
Here, too, the setup is very similar to that of LTC versus USD. The support was formed with very high volume at around the $120 level. This can also be labeled as a higher low. The level also converges with the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud and the base line (blue). After we broke into the cloud, we went straight up to the resistance zone at around $160-170.

BCHUSD Daily

XLMBTC (daily)
Here we see a fairly similar reaction as some other altcoins have shown over the past month. Very strong bottom building with large volume and then a strong reaction to the upside with even more volume. Now, we are hitting the resistance zone, which is also one of the biggest liquidity pools in XLM.

The strong performance needs to persist for a while to make a difference to the Ichimoku cloud. This is because, currently, it is unimpressed by the price action.

XLMBTC Daily

ADABTC (daily)
Another very clean setup for a potential ascending triangle. We will see the pattern as confirmed when we break through 0.00001400 and produce a daily closing above it.

Support will come in at the lower leg of the possible ascending triangle, or the recent low at around 0.00001060.

ADABTC Daily

EOSETH (daily)
For the brave, we also have an exotic pair in our repertoire. Here we see a potentially huge symmetrical triangle, which would count as a continuation pattern, meaning that the preceding uptrend would resume if it materialises.

A perfect setup would be to first have a retracement back down to the blue line before attacking the upper leg of the possible triangle again.

EOSETH Daily

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report CW 11

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor to provide extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. All in all, this gives a good overview of different practices to help you evaluate different market sectors. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

Should you wish to receive this weekly report by email, you may subscribe below.

Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Market Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Cap Overview

Glossary

1 Rotation Analysis

Last week was not very inspiring. We saw ETHBTC drift lower and turn bearish on the 4h chart time frame, and the top 10 coins showed more or less unchanged performances compared to last week. The only outlier was XLM with double digit gains.

On the correlation front, we did not spot any interesting anomalies. The general shift was toward 1.0, which is expected when the market is drifting with no real direction.

The action was in the 11 to 50 ranked altcoins. We already mentioned it in a daily market commentary this week: there is „rumble in the Bronx“. This sentiment is nicely captured in our MACD and advance decline line analysis in Figure 4. We will keep a close eye on the MACD, and, especially, on the ranks 2 to 10 to see if there are any spillover effects coming from the 11 to 50 altcoins.

Based on the ETHBTC chart, we are bearish on altcoins. But due to the fact that the 11 to 50 ranked coins are performing so well, we will keep our neutral stance for the overall position.

2 Market Analysis

During the past week, crypto markets continued to trade in a suppressed fashion and in a pretty narrow range. Rather large volumes frequently appeared on the offer side, but every dump was quickly followed by a pickup. The mini-zigzag on a daily basis may be an indication that a substantial move is about to happen. Technically, it was the first notable bull that cross formed for bitcoin since August 2018. The 50-day moving average has taken an upward turn and is about to cross the 100-day moving average. This could mean a renewed attack of the $4000 resistance, and, if successful, could lead to some improved momentum. When looking at the big picture, such a scenario could mean an actual turning point, and would certainly be very welcomed by crypto hodlers.

What can be expected of the next bull wave? One thing is for sure – now that infrastructure is improving, and a number of serious solution providers have proved resilient through this crypto winter, an additional market participant may appear on the scene: the institutional hodler. Zurich and Singpore-based Fintech start-up Sygnum announced a strategic partnership with Deutsche Börse, one of the largest market infrastructure providers, and Swisscom, the leading Swiss Information and Communication Technology company, to build such a trusted digital asset infrastructure. Topics the joint venture aims to address include issuance, secure custody, access to liquidity, and banking services. Only last week, auditing and services firm Ernst & Young launched a tool for accounting and preparing taxes on crypto holdings geared toward institutional clients and individuals. Investment management company Invesco partnered with Elwood Asset Management, and launched a blockchain exchange traded fund (ETF), which invests in 48 firms on the Elwood Blockchain Global Equity Index. And Switzerland’s stock exchange SIX reportedly launched another crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) for Ripple (XRP). Development also continues on the retail side. Samsung Galaxy S10 will also apparently store Ether and Ethereum-based ERC-20 tokens through the company’s blockchain wallet app. Surprisingly, bitcoin appears not to be supported at the launch, despite the fact that it earlier appeared on Samsung promotional materials. Still, it looks like blockchain is slowly, but surely, finding its way into people’s heads…

3 Top Ten Comparison

Table 1 : Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

Table 2: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

 

Figure 2: Correlation comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

Figure 3: Data source: Bitfinex; Chartsystem: Tradingview

ETHBTC – the bears are fully in charge now

The image is more clear now than it was one week ago. The Ichimoku cloud is still bearish, and we are trading below all indicators of the cloud. Additionally, we are also below the resistance zone.

The only counter indication against our bearish outlook is the bullish sentiment for the 11-50 ranked altcoins. You can find our detailed analysis in the rotation section.

ETHBTC chart 4 hours

6 Market Cap Overview

Figure 4: Market capitalisation overview; Data source: Coinmarketcap

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data Source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

Source Section 2 Market Analysisvision&

More information about and contact details for Crypto Broker AG are here.

Download Rotation Report here

Technical Analysis Tuesday 12th of March 2019

It’s TA-Tuesday again. Let’s have a look at some charts.

BTC$ daily

 

Looking at the big picture, there are no changes to report to our last analysis. Having said that, though, we made some significant changes in our pattern drawings. We changed from a symmetrical triangle to a ascending triangle (black lines).

The topside, at around 4,250, was touched three times, and the lower leg was tested twice.

Currently, we are sitting in the middle of the triangle, bang on the base line (blue). The ascending triangle is a bullish pattern. Therefore, we are looking for a breakout to the upside. The level to watch is 4,250.

BTC$ 4h

Currently, we are just sitting at the high price volume level of 3,850. Other support indications such as the base line (blue) and also the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud are coming in at around 3,750-3,800. The cloud is bearish, and therefore we are seeing a higher probability of pushing another leg lower.

Watch the 3,750 level as an indication. The first support comes in at around 3,650 and 3,550.

ETH$ daily

Over the past few weeks, we were trading in a narrow trading range with one exception: when we tried to break into the resistance zone, which comes in just above the 160 level.

Trading activity/volume has been rather high since the beginning of this year, which created a nice liquidity pool with the peak at just around the 130 level.

For the first time since April 2017, the Ichimoku cloud has the potential to turn bullish. The body of the cloud is very narrow.

The picture looks very similar to BTC$ with an ascending triangle. Hence, we are favouring a break to the upside.

ETH$ 4h

For this time frame, an imminent bullish breakout is not in the cards. We are below the base line (blue) and below the lower band of the cloud.

The next support comes in at around 120, which is a minor liquidity pool and converges with the lower leg of the ascending triangle. Topside resistance is at 140, and then the upper leg of the triangle.

LTC$ daily

Litecoin is still the most promising looking setup. The Ichimoku cloud turned bullish, and we are trading way above the body of the cloud. We are also above the base line (blue).

We are now in the retracement phase after we hit the 60 resistance level. As long as the correction does not go deeper than 42, we value it as a healthy one and are looking for the bullish trend to resume. Our target to the upside is between 67-72.

LTC$ 4h

Not much to add for this time frame. All indications are bullish and the structure looks healthy.

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report CW 10

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor to provide extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. All in all, this gives a good overview of different practices to help you evaluate different market sectors. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

Should you wish to receive this weekly report by email, you may subscribe below.

Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Market Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Cap Overview

Glossary

1 Rotation Analysis

In our report from last week, we mentioned that we felt that the pullback was a healthy correction of the overall bullish uptrend in altcoins. From a performance point of view (see Table 1), that statement seems to be accurate. We have seen gains in 4 out of 9 cryptocurrencies, with LTC and BNB being the top performers. The losses of the other 5 are moderate. Since LTC was one of the bigger outperformers, we also checked the correlation changes (see Table 2). Correlation moved higher, and is currently at 0.71 to BTC, which is an indication that LTC was most probably one of the market drivers for the overall positive week.

The devil is in the details, as they say. Our last indication set the MACD, and the advance decline line is the perfect fit for this (see Figure 4). Unfortunately, there is no clear signal on the MACD for bitcoin nor the MACD for ranks 2 to 10. Also, the advance decline line for the ranks 2 to 10 is (if anything) slightly bearish. Regarding the 11 to 50 ranks, we do see a turn from bullish to bearish. This is for both, the MACD and the advance decline line.

Usually, we simply take ETHBTC as the big picture proxy for the altcoin sentiment. But we would like to point out that in the current environment, where LTC is the outperforming currency, and as per our correlation analysis a potential driver for the overall positive sentiment in the market, we are keeping a close eye on LTCBTC.

2 Market Analysis

Markets continue to consolidate on a relatively stable note after the slide at the end of February. The Ethereum hard fork apparently went through without a hitch and did not lead to any noticeable price swings to the down or the upside. A small market rally on Tuesday sparked hopes of a renewed break of the $4,000 bitcoin level. Leading coins in this move higher were EOS and Litecoin. EOS jumped from $3.30 to a high of $3.84 before pulling back to $3.70, marking a 12% gain in 24 hours. Litecoin did even better with a surge of about 13%. Technical indicators continue to point toward a recovery this year, which is notably the year previous to the bitcoin mining reward halving – a reoccurring event that has triggered positive price actions in the past. While frequent dumps of large holdings have kept the market under pressure for a while, engagement of whale accounts may now actually be a supportive factor. Over the past 60 days, about $570 million worth of bitcoin have reportedly been bought by the 100 largest BTC wallets. A similar pattern was observed back in December when Ethereum (ETH) whales piled up their stocks. On the one hand, we all appreciate the supportive character this engagement has on prices and the overall sentiment for the market. On the other hand, growing whale accounts are certainly not in the interest of a balanced and well diversified market, given the still limited liquidity.

Switzerland’s SIX stock exchange announced the launch of an Ethereum (ETH) exchanged-traded product. March 5 was the first trading day for the ETP, which is backed by the Swiss company Amun AG. Furthermore, the Zug-based real estate startup Blockimmo processed the first real estate transaction on the blockchain. The property in Baar consists of 18 flats and a restaurant. From the funds raised, CHF 3 million or 20 percent of the property value was registered on a blockchain, and a token was distributed to four investors. It requires exactly such use cases to prove the advantages. The next step is now widespread adoption.

3 Top Ten Comparison

Table 1 : Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

Table 2: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

 

Figure 2: Correlation comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

Figure 3: Data source: Bit1nex; Chartsystem: Tradingview

ETHBTC has been on a wild ride, but closed unchanged for the week.

When we broke through to the downside at around 0.03460 pressure increased, which was probably due to the fact that the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud and the resistance zone converged right there. This triggered more sellers coming out of the woodwork. But again, for some reason we did not see a total collaps, and ETHBTC bounced back quickly right up to the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud. However, the sell-off did leave some scars. The Ichimoku clould turned bearish, and from what we can see right now, the lower band is acting as resistance.

We are currently in a bit of a dilemma. One of two indicators has turned bearish for our altcoin call. The Ichimoku cloud turned bearish, but we are back in the resistance zone. Therefore, we will switch from overweight to neutral for the altcoins versus BTC. It is one of those periods where you better stay on the sidelines and wait until the picture becomes clearer.

ETHBTC chart 4 hours

6 Market Cap Overview

Figure 4: Market capitalisation overview; Data source: Coinmarketcap

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data Source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

Source Section 2 Market Analysisvision&

More information about and contact details for Crypto Broker AG are here.

Download Rotation Report here

Technical Analysis Tuesday 5th of March 2019

BTC / USD

Please find below our technical analysis for BTC$. We will start with longer timeframes, and then work our way down.

 

BTC$ daily chart long time frame

 

BTC$ (daily)
When we focus on the bigger picture, our first indicator is the Ichimoku cloud. The cloud turned bearish when we were rejected the 3rd time just below the 12k mark. You can also see that the base line (blue) worked nicely as a resistance line. From the 12k level down to 3,700 we only dove three times into the cloud (red zone) with the last dive happening just two weeks ago.

Our second indicator is liquidity. First, we look at overall liquidity/volume on the time axis (volume bars in red and green at the bottom), and then at price volume on the right-hand side (bars in blue and yellow). The price volume bars depict the so-called liquidity pools. The large pools are sitting in the „high volume range“ between 6,000 and 7,000, and the other ones are a bit lower in price between 3,600 and 4,000.

The next indicator is the funding rate (or, in other words), the shape of the term futures curve. This indicator is only meaningful for BTC as other crypto assets do not have a liquid derivative market. Here, we get a sense of how convinced market players are in putting more shorts or long positions on their books.

Currently, we see funding rates swinging back from being fairly negative to neutral, with a similar move in the term futures coming heavily in backwardation toward a flat curve. This means that they are close to where spot is trading. What we have observed is a rather bullish signal as it looks like the bears (sellers) are running out of steam.

And last but not least, we use the classical pattern analysis of support and resistance lines, triangles, and more complex patterns such as head and shoulder formations. Our current possible pattern is a triangle formation (black lines). In most cases, a triangle is a continuation pattern, meaning that the prevailing trend should continue. In rare cases, a triangle formation can also dissolve into a trend reversal. We might have such a case, since we broke out to the upside (into the Ichimoku cloud) and retested the upper leg of the triangle. To be honest, if we do not see a spike higher over the next few days, I will disregard this pattern.

Now, let’s combine all the findings to see our high-probability outcome backed by the above analysis.

The market is still bearish on a daily time frame. This is displayed perfectly by the large red Ichimoku cloud. We see some hope for the bulls due to the fact that we pushed into the cloud and traded just above the base line (blue). We have not reached a higher high yet, but we might have formed a higher low. Our possible triangle formation can only get taken into account if we see a spike soon. The bottom line is that we will not see a bullish case until we clear the first resistance at around 4,200.

 

BTC$ daily chart zoomed in

 

Now, let’s zoom into the daily chart. This will shed some light on the so-called danger zone, or the level where a few important levels come together (converge). Yesterday, with the small sell-off, we pushed through the base line (blue line) and stopped right at the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud. Additionally, our upper leg of the possible triangle comes in at that level, and more importantly, the upper band of our accumulation zone is also right there. We think that if we break through 3,600-3,650, the remaining bulls will throw in their towels, and we could see a dump deep into the accumulation zone: down to 3,250.

 

BTC$ 4 hour chart

 

Here we see the confirmation that yesterday’s sell-off was the trigger for the Ichimoku cloud turning bearish (red). Actually, the warning signs already lit up when we got the rejection from the 4,200 level and pushed straight through the base line (blue). In this view, it is also more visible where the liquidity pools are (volume bars on the right-hand side). We are right in the middle of two bigger pools. There is one at around 3,800 and the other is at around 3,600. They will work like magnets to the price, and we expect to see some stop losses getting triggered if we cross those levels.

Combining these three views, we think that the risk is rather skewed to the downside. Looking at the bigger picture, we would only turn neutral to bullish if we break the 4, 200 resistance. Regarding a shorter time frame, the 3,900 level might trigger a quick push up to the 4,200 level, but the risk remains that we will see another rejection.

To add to a short position, we need to see a clear break below the 3,550 level.

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report CW 09

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor to provide extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. All in all, this gives a good overview of different practices to help you evaluate different market sectors. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

Should you wish to receive this weekly report by email, you may subscribe below.

Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Market Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Cap Overview

Glossary

1 Rotation Analysis

The bullish altcoin run took a beating and we lost some of the gains we saw two weeks ago. In our opinion it is a healthy correction of the bullish trend.

Volatility and correlation have barely changed – not even with the hard drop in prices on Sunday. Of the top 10 rankings, LTC and ETH are still looking healthy and are keeping the positive momentum going.

On the MACD chart for bitcoin, we are still in negative territory. But there are some first signs of bitcoin regaining some strength as the fast line is close to the slow line. On the contrary, we are finally seeing the 11-50 rankings turning bullish. They are catching up with the top 10 rankings. The one indicator that is still not impressed and is not showing conviction is the advance decline line. To be precise, we are talking about the EWMA smoothed line (purple). This line is still struggling to cross the 0.5 level.

2 Market Analysis

A key event this week was the sudden drop in bitcoin, after about two weeks of positive momentum and only hours away from a potential weekly close above the crucial \$4,200 level. The biggest single day drop since early January did not spark any substantial worries in the crypto community, but the extent of it was still somewhat disillusioning. Volumes are still not there to absorb these kinds of dumps. There is likely some concern about the state of the market, given the magnitude of the drop, particularly amongst the volatility averse institutional investor base. The uncertainty surrounding the Ethereum upgrade is not helping either. However, should markets remain stable at the current levels for a few more days, bitcoin may see itself heading toward its first monthly gain since July 2018 – and potentially end a long losing streak as signs of bearish exhaustion emerge.

Swiss Private Bank Julius Baer announced plans this week to offer clients access to digital assets through a partnership with SEBA Crypto. The Swiss Digital Exchange (SDX) is also pressing for their digital asset trading platform while also expecting some slight delays. Elsewhere in the world, a more crypto-friendly era is taking shape in Latin America, where the largest Latin American investment Bank, BTG Pactual, apparently announced the launch of its own security token. Bigwigs are also increasingly making comments about crypto and blockchain. For instance, Mark Zuckerberg, when recently interviewed by a Harvard professor, said that he is thinking about using the technology for Facebook authentication and log-in data. Furthermore, promising developments are taking place in South Korea, where Samsung has reportedly appointed crypto startup Enjin to back a blockchain wallet for its new Galaxy S10 smartphone. On the regulatory side, focus has shifted again to the SEC and the Bitcoin ETF approvals – a decision that will probably set the tone for other jurisdictions as well. A positive outcome here could not only send a positive signal to the market, but might set the guidelines for other regulators around the world. However, we do not expect this to happen anytime soon. We deem the developments with banks and on the infrastructure side as more important anyway.

3 Top Ten Comparison

Table 1 : Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

Table 2: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

Figure 2: Correlation comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

Figure 3: Data source: Bit1nex; Chartsystem: Tradingview

We are sticking to an overweight altcoin versus BTC position. We will revise this call when we break out of the lower end of our resistance zone in combination with the Ichimoku cloud turning bearish.What does this mean for our rotation call?

Most of the time, such a pattern will result in the current trend failing, which we also saw materialise for ETHBTC. We came right back into the resistance zone, albeit slightly lower, and even briefly dipped below the lower band of it. The positive news out of this for the bulls is the reaction that happened immediately after the dip. This dip, by the way, stopped right at the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud. There was quickly a strong buying interest, which pushed the price right back to the level where the dip had started. This means that we are now back to square one, but the bulls have some more confidence that the lower band of the resistance zone will hold.

We finally saw a decisive push higher above the resistance zone, but failed to reach new highs.

ETHBTC chart 4 hours

6 Market Cap Overview

Figure 4: Market capitalisation overview; Data source: Coinmarketcap

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data Source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

Source Section 2 Market Analysisvision&

More information about and contact details for Crypto Broker AG are here.

Download Rotation Report here