In diesem Artikel von Coindesk kommentiert Patrick Heusser, unser Head of Trading über den Preis von Bitcoin: „Der nächste Widerstandswert liegt bei $13.800 (Höchststand Juni 2019).“
Blockchain Bites: JPM Coin Goes Live, Bitcoin Rallies, Stocks Falter
JPM Coin will see its first commercial use, banking executives said. Southeast Asia’s largest bank by assets, DBS, is eyeing a digital assets exchange. And bitcoin’s recent rise shows a decoupling from traditional markets, like the S&P 500.
Bitcoin is rallying, and on-chain and off-chain indicators point to a continuing trend. CoinDesk markets reporter Omkar Godbole placed bitcoin’s new yearly watermark in the context of declining daily deposits to cryptocurrency exchanges as well as a movement of coins off exchanges.
According to Glassnode, the number of daily deposits to exchanges fell to a nine-month low of 26,889 on Monday as the total number of bitcoins held on exchanges slipped to a two-year low of 2,478,799 BTC.
These statistics, while imperfect, have traditionally pointed to a market sentiment where traders and investors are prepared to “hodl” into a rally, Godbole noted.
A similar sentiment can be gauged by looking at futures markets, where contracts give the option for buyers to strike a buy at a predetermined price by a predetermined date. According to Godbole’s analysis, one-, three- and six-month put-call skews, which measure the cost of bearing to bullish bets are hovering near zero, an indication that some traders expect for bitcoin’s price to continue rising.
Last week, Bloomberg analysts put out a quarterly report on predictive crypto performance, targeting a $100,000 BTC price level for 2025 and a high of $14,000 as early as this year.
“Still in hangover mode from the 2017 rally, we don’t know what specific catalyst might launch Bitcoin to new highs, but demand vs. supply metrics remain price-positive,” the analysts write in “Bitcoin Trend, Adding Zeros.”
Among the macro factors they point to is bitcoin’s decreasing volatility compared to the Nasdaq composite, a growing correlation with gold and a likely growing market cap, in part spurred by corporate investment (like MicroStrategy and Square’s) in the cryptocurrency.
“In an unparalleled macroeconomic backdrop of rapidly increasing fiscal and monetary stimulus, limited supply stores of value such as gold and Bitcoin stand to prevail, in our view. This should be true when traditional asset classes – stocks and bonds – are overextended,” the report reads.
A separate report by CoinDesk’s sister company Grayscale has found that more than half (55%) of U.S. investors who responded are interested in buying bitcoin in 2020. That’s up from 19% from survey responses last year.
For the short term? “The next resistance to take out is $13,800 (June 2019 high),” Patrick Heusser, a senior cryptocurrency trader at Zurich-based Crypto Broker AG told Godbole.
Bitcoin is riding at 16-month highs, trading around $13,420 at press time. The cryptocurrency is now up 25% for the month and 87% on a year-to-date basis, CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole reports. This comes as coronavirus scares and intermittent U.S. stimulus talks have spooked traditional markets, seen by the S&P 500’s 2% drop yesterday. “In effect, we appear to be seeing a weakening of the positive correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 seen since the March crash,” Godbole said. Matthew Dibb, COO of Stack Funds, agreed: “The decline in transfers to exchanges despite risk-off in equity markets is a bullish sign.”