deenfr

18 April 2019

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report CW 16

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Senior Trader bei Crypto Broker AG

Über den Autor

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor, with extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

Should you wish to receive this weekly report by email, you may subscribe below.

Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Market Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Cap Overview

Glossary

 

1 Rotation Analysis

This time, we nailed it.

Further weakness marked the altcoin market last week. BCH, BNB, and ADA were the only coins exhibiting a positive weekly performance.

Volatility is disappointingly low. Our expectation was that after the big upmove, volatility would increase across the board. People have been wondering why this is, and we think that the following is one of the best explanations:

Yes, bitcoin is volatile, but on most days it is not doing a great deal. In April, we had one big move from 4’000 to 5’000, and then things were quiet again. This creates a very high volume as option prices need to adjust substantially each time to adapt to very different regimes.

On our annualised volatility chart (Figure 1), you can see that across the top 10 coins there was a slight increase in volatility just after the rally on April 2nd.

Correlation is as tight as ever. Almost every coin is close to a 1.0 correlation. We are afraid that there is no decoupling in sight, and, therefore, there was no altcoin rally either.

Looking at our MACDs and advance-decline line charts (Figure 4), we now have a clear picture of a bearish phase for altcoins. Ranks 2 – 10 have finally moved into negative territory, and ranks 11 – 50 have reconfirmed their negative trend. Therefore, we are sticking to our positioning of overweight bitcoin vs altcoins.

 

2 Market Analysis

Crypto markets are back in green territory after a drop that looked like it could extend into an extensive dump and threaten the key $5,000 bitcoin support. The market temporarily suffered from jitters around the Bitcoin SV battle, which was taken to another level with Binance de-listing this Bitcoin Cash fork. However, there was a turnaround, led by bitcoin, which took the total market-cap back up above the $175bln mark again. Bitcoin dominance thus increased a notch. Just as the dust around the de-listing of BSV had settled, further crypto heavyweights followed Binance: Shapeshift, BitTrue, and Blockchain.com all joined the „Anti-BSV“ movement. On Wednesday, Kraken also announced the de-listing of Bitcoin SV. It was good to see that the industry ultimately corrects such lapses and that the market reacted accordingly. Bitcoin, as well as many of the altcoins, now appear to be at the starting block, ready for another hike and will test the next crucial resistance levels soon. Tezos (XTZ) gained quite some ground recently and may soon aim at reclaiming its place among the unicorns.

But now back to what really matters. Despite some pullback in terms of development, Bakkt Bitcoin Futures Exchange announced the hiring of a former Google and Paypal Engineer as new product chief. Also, institutional-grade investment manager Arca Funds filed with the SEC to issue stablecoin-like digitised shares on the ETH Blockchain. Adoption is also progressing with one interesting move from YouTube’s most popular individual streamer PewDiePie, who is moving away from Youtube to use DLive after some disputes with the world’s largest video streaming platform. DLive is a live-streaming video service that is based on blockchain technology. With a Youtube subscriber base of 95 million, the vlogger-gamer-comedian has a massive reach into every angle of society. From a regulatory perspective, France adopted a bill that reportedly allows insurance providers in France to invest in cryptocurrencies and tokens with no limit to the amount of investment. Moving out of the virtual world, Nestle, Carrefour, and IBM announced this week that they have partnered to use IBM’s blockchain technology to track the supply chain of a well-known brand of instant mashed potatoes … Blockchain is really starting to find its way into our kitchens.

 

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

 

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

 

6 Market Cap Overview

 

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data Source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

Source for Section 2 Market Analysisvision&

More information about and contact details for Crypto Broker AG are here.

Download Rotation Report here

Weiterlesen