deenfr

13 Juni 2019

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report CW 24

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Senior Trader bei Crypto Broker AG

Über den Autor

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor, with extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

Should you wish to receive this weekly report by email, you may subscribe below.

Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

Glossary

1 Rotation Analysis

The altcoin push is cooling off.

Our traditional indicators are all heading toward a pause or consolidation within the altcoin space. We are seeing that correlation is slowly but surely moving back to almost 1 in the top 10 coins.

MACDs for all three sectors are flattening out and over the past few weeks the advanced decline line did not manage to close above the 0.5 line.

This extensive period of not showing any clear direction is triggering us to go completely balanced on BTC versus altcoin exposure. We will be watching from the sidelines and will hopefully see a clear directional change through our indicators over the next few days or weeks.

 

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

The first thing which stands out is the XBT and BTC versus USD basis that turned flat or negative on both exchanges. This reflects a rebalancing of supply and demand. During the upmove over the past few weeks, the demand side was a lot stronger than the supply. This caused the basis to move out aggressively. Now, it is much more balanced.

Looking at the broader picture across the other altcoins, there was not much action in terms of basis moves. It sort of reflects the general lack of risk appetite among market participants for altcoins. What can be said, though, is that when the Bitcoin USD basis moves tighter, as a first reaction you will see the altcoin future basis follow.

Having said that though, it does not necessarily mean that we do not see outperformance in certain altcoins. For example ADABTC had a good run without the basis pushing out. One can debate about it if this is the healthier set-up as the push is coming from real money buyers (cash market) and not out of the leveraged trader sector (futures). We argue, since this asset class is not yet established within the larger asset managers around the world, it probably does not matter much which instrument pushes the price. But it might become more relevant, when broader adoption occurs within the traditional financial sector.

There are no clear indications out of the altcoin future basis regarding our rotation analysis call. We take it as neutral to slightly bearish bias in our indicator summary.

Figure 1: Altcoin Futures Basis Overview

 

3 Top Ten Comparison

Table 1: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

Table 2: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

Figure 2: Volatility comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

Figure 3: Correlation comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

Figure 4: Data source: Bitfinex; Chartsystem: Tradingview

Sideways is the name of the game – try not to get chopped up…

It is the second time we bounced off of the 0.030000 level. This time, we are even making new highs just above the 0.032000 level. But that was about all the excitement we seem to get from this pair.

We really seem to be trapped within those three liquidity pools that we mentioned in our last report 0.031000 / 0.032600 / 0.034350. We will add the 0.030000 level as the trigger to turn bearish if we break it to the downside.

To turn bullish, we need a clear break of the 0.034350 level on a daily closing basis.

Be aware of the Ichimoku cloud which is turning quickly in sentiment due to the sideways action. It is not a good indicator until we break one of the above mentioned levels.

 

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

Figure 5: Market capitalisation overview; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

More information about and contact details for Crypto Broker AG are here.

Download the Rotation Report as a PDF here.

Weiterlesen