deenfr

24 Oktober 2019

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report Week 43

Simon Tobler

Simon Tobler

Head of Trading bei Crypto Broker AG

Über den Autor

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor, with extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

Should you wish to receive this weekly report by email, you may subscribe below.

Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

Glossary

 

1 Rotation Analysis

Another rough week

After a short attempt to break above USD 8’400, bitcoin took out the support at USD 7’800 and made new lows in this move at around USD 7’300.

The picture in the altcoins looks only slightly better. Most of the top ten altcoins are flattish versus bitcoin, whereas BSV managed to outperform by about 17 percent. In our market cap and MACD section, we still see altcoins gaining back some market share from bitcoin, but only very smallish.

It’s very interesting to see that in the recent sell-off, the FTX altcoin indices were not only outperforming bitcoin but were also able to hold the lows in USD terms from about a month ago.

View the charts: Altcoin index (4-hour)Midcap index (4-hour)  |  Shitcoin index (4-hour)

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

With the drop in price yesterday, the basis came under pressure as did all coins. The bitcoin December future is flat, with March still being about half a percent positive.

The picture is a bit mixed for the altcoins. The outperformers from last week, ADA and EOS, have lost against bitcoin, whereas the others have been flattish to gaining back some ground versus the benchmark. In USD terms, only ADA has a positive basis.

So, it’s fair to say that not much leverage and hope is left in the system. Another drop lower in prices, e.g. bitcoin testing the USD 6,500 support, and I would expect some version of panic selling and seeing the basis in deep negative territory. This would be the ideal foundation and almost a necessity for the next bull run.

Figure 1: Altcoin futures basis overview

 

3 Top Ten Comparison

Table 1: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

Table 2: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

Figure 2: Volatility comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

Figure 3: Correlation comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

Figure 4: Data source: Bitfinex; Chartsystem: Tradingview

ETH consolidates against BTC

Over the course of the week, ETH was under constant pressure versus bitcoin and even dropped below the support briefly at 0.0210. With bitcoin tanking, ether was able to gain back some ground and is now right in the middle of the consolidation range.

The support and resistance levels have not changed, so we are still watching 0.0210 and 0.0185 on the downside and 0.0230 and 0.0250 on the topside.

View the charts: ETHBTC 4h chart   |   ETHBTC daily chart

 

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

Figure 5: Market capitalisation overview; Data source: Coinmarketcap

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

More information about and contact details for Crypto Broker AG are here.

Download the Rotation Report as a PDF here.

Weiterlesen