It is time for another TA-Tuesday with additional bleeding on the altcoin front…
I feel the bleed in my own portfolio. Bitcoin is performing nicely, but I am not getting anywhere with my altcoins. Thankfully most of my coins are either staking somewhere or in liquidity pools producing some yield.
It has been a while since I looked at the ALT, MID, and SHIT indices on FTX vs Bitcoin. The picture is not pretty, to say the least.
ALT vs BTC (daily)
We are back to the lows we saw in May when the first selling wave in China was triggered. From a liquidity pool point of view there is not much that supports the current price levels. Another 20% lower seems feasible, which is somewhere in the middle of a large liquidity pool (at around 66).
MID vs BTC (daily)
This one looks even worse. We are below the lows of both China sell-offs. We have roughly another 10% to the downside before we hit a large liquidity pool (at around 55).
SHIT vs BTC (daily)
Funnily enough, the SHIT looks better compared to the MID (which is unusual when altcoins are bleeding versus bitcoin). Nevertheless, we are also trading below both China lows since May. What worries me a bit is the gap to the next lower liquidity pool, which comes in at around 77 (an additional 30% lower). I am not sure if the smaller coins need to catch up or if there is some kind of structure change happening.
UNISWAP vs BTC (daily)
When bitcoin suffered from the selling pressure (due mainly to the regulatory changes in China), the unregulated and decentralised tokens outperformed. They did return some gains, but are still far better performing versus ALT, MID, and SHIT.
Here are two points I would like to highlight:
1) As mentioned in yesterday’s Market Commentary, I still believe that bitcoin will continue to outperform (be that on the way up or down).
2) Is the UNISWAP token outperformance the materialisation of the gap widening I was referring to in my regulatory notes?
I am more than happy to discuss both points with you.