So far, bitcoin has not disappointed. Over the past week, it has been delivering steady price increases. It took several attempt to push through the recent high of $11,650, but in the end we did it.
The supply wall is still looming at around 12k. We are seeing roughly 1,000 BTC sitting on offer on Coinbase up to 12k (Bitfinex, Binance, and Coinbase together have roughly 4k BTC on offer up to 12k). Other market professionals who are more actively involved in BTC options trading have mentioned that a fair amount of those offers come from option strategies.
I still expect us to reach 12k, and depending on how the market approaches the level, also a swift move up to 12.5k, where the next larger offers come in at the larger trading venues (see the Coinbase Heatmap).
$390 seems to be tougher than I thought. There are roughly 50k ETH on offer up to $390 on Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Binance. After the first attempt, we moved back down significantly. The price was supported by the Ichimoku cloud and the base line (blue line). In fact, the base line seems to be the rope that ETH is hanging on to.
Somehow this pair is not playing along with my view. We are flip-flopping around the 0.033 level, which is giving me the impession that the level is not as important as I originally thought.