13 October 2020

TA Tuesday – Movement outside the ranges

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Head of Trading at Crypto Broker AG

About the author

BTC$ (4h)
Finally, we are seeing some movement outside of the old range of 9.8-11.2k.

I was asked yesterday, where I see this market heading. My quick response was that I thought we’d see 14k and not 10.5k (again). Currently, this call is well on track. The only thing that worries me a bit is the massive supply we have around 12k. These are not only from Asian accounts (or platforms), but also on Coinbase. I will monitor the supply over the coming days.

On the downside, I am interested in seeing if drops like we saw yesterday and overnight are being bought up continuously that quickly. The order book is not that well populated on the bid side, but for some reason when the price dips market buy orders come in and support the price.

(see also the Coinbase Heat Map below)

ETH$ (4h)
The good old $390 level is capping the price again. Let’s see for how long…

I see the current short-term range as 360-390. To me, a breakout of $390 on a daily closing basis is a very bullish sign. This could spark a rally in the medium term towards the recent high of $490.

Everything below $330 will destroy the current bullish sentiment.

The first important hurdle was taken yesterday by pushing decisively through the 0.033 support/resistance flip line. In addition to this, we also pushed through the Ichimoku cloud and are now above the upper band line.

The cloud turned positive and the price is currently right at the lower end of a large liquidity pool (between 0.00335 – 0.00345).

The current situation is in line with my bullish outlook for ETH$. There is a strong possibility that we will see a rotation back into ETH versus BTC.

DEFI$ (4h)
There has been a nice recovery, but we are still within the larger range of 1,800-2,310. The first indication of a possible trend change was when we pushed through the baseline (blue line), and then (a little later) through the entire Ichimoku cloud.

However, in order for me to get into long positions, I need to see a break above 2,310, and see at least one daily closing above that level.

In case that happens, I expect to see a swift move higher towards 3,000, since there has not been much traded inbetween.

Since we began looking a bit closer at the smaller coins, I will add more on the UNISWAP index here.

The pattern is faily similar to what we have seen for DEFI$. We also pushed through the baseline and into the Ichimoku cloud.

The resistance zone seems to be at around 19k. This needs to be taken out, and (with it) we should close above the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud. This would turn me bullish.

YFI$ (4h)
Fundamentally, I still like the coin/project, but I have to admit that it does not look good technically for the bulls.

After we broke the 22k level, the bullish scenario was gone. I am not fully convinced that the top formation is/was a shoulder-head-shoulder. Therefore, I am sticking with the current (large) range of 12.2k-22k.

DOT$ (4h)
Dot is holding well at $3.70. The price is now within the Ichimoku cloud, which just recently turned bullish. Let us see if we can turn this baby around.

$4.60 is the resistance we need to break to see a swift move up to $5.40.

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