11 May 2021

TA Tuesday: Will the price dip into the cloud, or will we see it lift and move over it?

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Head of Trading at Crypto Broker AG

About the author

BTC$ (daily)
All of you who follow me know that I like to zoom out from time to time; especially after a longer break, it’s good to start off with the daily chart.

My first impression: the rising wedge has not done any harm. Yes, we saw a dip (just shy of below the $50k level), but we recovered fairly quickly, and the price started “dancing” just above the Ichimoku cloud (right around the baseline).

We have not been that long and that close to the cloud since October/November 2020. It’s decision time now… Will the price dip into the cloud, or will we see it lift and move over it?

Let’s now move on to the BTC$ (4h) chart.

This chart looks pretty wild, with a great deal of zig-zag action. Nevertheless, the Ichimoku cloud is green, and the current price is just within the cloud (but below the baseline).

Additionally, we are in a potential upward sloping channel. If we manage to bounce off of the lows of that channel again, I see a good chance of the price hovering over the cloud on the daily chart (see above).

If not, we might see a deeper correction, which would be the “C” of a classical ABC correction.

ETH$ (daily)
What a thing of beauty!

Some traders are claiming that over the past weeks ETH has been supporting or even helping to raise crypto prices in every sector. One thing is clear: the sell side liquidity crisis is in full force. The rally is pretty much spot driven with only a few spikes on the perpetual funding rate side (futures).

Technically, it looks like a FANG stock with almost no drawbacks and a 45 degree upward moving trend. But let’s zoom in quickly to check if we can see any bumps ahead…

ETH$ (4h)
The $4k level took a bit of time to break, and after prices pushed through, we saw a quick pop up to $4.2k, with a kind of exhaustion sell-off (I usually look at Kraken, and those wicks just happen from time to time, especially to the downside).

I would like to see the price stabilise above the $3.8k mark to then take a smooth ride towards the $5k level.

If that doesn’t happen, we might be up for a bigger correction into the $3.2k area. My guess is that if we see BTC$ take a dive into the $44-50k range, we will see ETH$ follow and hit that correction level of $3.2k.

But let’s try to verify this by looking at the ETHBTC (daily) chart.

My first impression: damn that looks steep! We should be in for a correction, but to check that, we need to zoom in.

Does this chart look familiar to you? Yep, it almost looks like ETH$ (blue line).

So, no real signs of a bigger correction. We might come a touch lower and consolidate in the 0.067 area. In case ETH does temporarily lose its shine (which, in my opinion, can only happen if BTC steamrolls ahead to the 75k level), it might even go down to the 0.06 area.

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