Last week, I briefly mentioned some possible systemic changes in the altcoin market. All the events went through and some additional ones I did not mention have also come to pass.
- Binance shut out their US customers and also launched their futures and options platform.
- BitMEX launched the March 2020 contract.
- A few Asian exchanges have delisted most of the privacy coins.
Nevertheless, this has not harmed ETH (the flagship of altcoins). It is like an invisible hand is pushing the price higher every day. Volume is not great, but as soon as some larger sellers come in, the buyers stay firm and make sure that the price does not move.
It is getting really quiet out there. The daily price movements are getting smaller and smaller.
The conclusion from my core analysis has not changed from last week. But one should bear in mind that there is a potential 3rd option – that we will trade sideways for a lot longer than everyone anticipated. If this happens, I see the sideways range being between 9k – 12k.
The target from last week was reached. And yesterday, we dipped into the resistance zone.
As mentioned above, the market is moving steadily higher, but the overall volume increase is missing.
Nevertheless, if we trade through the resistance zone with a daily closing above $206, we have a good chance of heading to the next resistance at around $220, which confluences nicely with the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud.
Maybe we are in a five-wave sequence that started within the triangle roughly a year ago.
If that is the case, it would match the possible target of the triangle nicely, with the last wave (number five).
I am not a Fibonacci expert and therefore I will not make any more suggestions as to how deep the correction for the potential wave four will/should go.
The correction seems to have found a bottom and turned. This makes for a good stop level for any long positions on a short-term basis. For the longer term, I still suggest to wait until it breaks $7.
For the longs, I see the target back up to the previous highs, which is at around $7.20.
We are still banging on the ceiling of roughly $73. I have to say this correction of the downtrend is broader than anticipated.
But we did reach some interesting levels to either try the downside again (which I favour), with a stop just above $74. Or buy after the breakout above $74.
Well, I guess we have to be patient. The only trade that sticks out to me is still the potential Shoulder-Head-Shoulder formation.
Get in the trade when a breakout happens below the $270-280 range.
No real news here except that we traded through the resistance of $615.
The levels to watch are still $675 as stops for the shorts and $555 to add more shorts.
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