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14 mars 2019

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report CW 11

Patrick Mehrhoff

Patrick Mehrhoff

Marketing et communication chez Crypto Finance AG

A propos de l'auteur

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor to provide extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. All in all, this gives a good overview of different practices to help you evaluate different market sectors. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

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Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Market Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Cap Overview

Glossary

1 Rotation Analysis

Last week was not very inspiring. We saw ETHBTC drift lower and turn bearish on the 4h chart time frame, and the top 10 coins showed more or less unchanged performances compared to last week. The only outlier was XLM with double digit gains.

On the correlation front, we did not spot any interesting anomalies. The general shift was toward 1.0, which is expected when the market is drifting with no real direction.

The action was in the 11 to 50 ranked altcoins. We already mentioned it in a daily market commentary this week: there is « rumble in the Bronx ». This sentiment is nicely captured in our MACD and advance decline line analysis in Figure 4. We will keep a close eye on the MACD, and, especially, on the ranks 2 to 10 to see if there are any spillover effects coming from the 11 to 50 altcoins.

Based on the ETHBTC chart, we are bearish on altcoins. But due to the fact that the 11 to 50 ranked coins are performing so well, we will keep our neutral stance for the overall position.

2 Market Analysis

During the past week, crypto markets continued to trade in a suppressed fashion and in a pretty narrow range. Rather large volumes frequently appeared on the offer side, but every dump was quickly followed by a pickup. The mini-zigzag on a daily basis may be an indication that a substantial move is about to happen. Technically, it was the first notable bull that cross formed for bitcoin since August 2018. The 50-day moving average has taken an upward turn and is about to cross the 100-day moving average. This could mean a renewed attack of the $4000 resistance, and, if successful, could lead to some improved momentum. When looking at the big picture, such a scenario could mean an actual turning point, and would certainly be very welcomed by crypto hodlers.

What can be expected of the next bull wave? One thing is for sure – now that infrastructure is improving, and a number of serious solution providers have proved resilient through this crypto winter, an additional market participant may appear on the scene: the institutional hodler. Zurich and Singpore-based Fintech start-up Sygnum announced a strategic partnership with Deutsche Börse, one of the largest market infrastructure providers, and Swisscom, the leading Swiss Information and Communication Technology company, to build such a trusted digital asset infrastructure. Topics the joint venture aims to address include issuance, secure custody, access to liquidity, and banking services. Only last week, auditing and services firm Ernst & Young launched a tool for accounting and preparing taxes on crypto holdings geared toward institutional clients and individuals. Investment management company Invesco partnered with Elwood Asset Management, and launched a blockchain exchange traded fund (ETF), which invests in 48 firms on the Elwood Blockchain Global Equity Index. And Switzerland’s stock exchange SIX reportedly launched another crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) for Ripple (XRP). Development also continues on the retail side. Samsung Galaxy S10 will also apparently store Ether and Ethereum-based ERC-20 tokens through the company’s blockchain wallet app. Surprisingly, bitcoin appears not to be supported at the launch, despite the fact that it earlier appeared on Samsung promotional materials. Still, it looks like blockchain is slowly, but surely, finding its way into people’s heads…

3 Top Ten Comparison

Table 1 : Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

Table 2: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

 

Figure 2: Correlation comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

Figure 3: Data source: Bitfinex; Chartsystem: Tradingview

ETHBTC – the bears are fully in charge now

The image is more clear now than it was one week ago. The Ichimoku cloud is still bearish, and we are trading below all indicators of the cloud. Additionally, we are also below the resistance zone.

The only counter indication against our bearish outlook is the bullish sentiment for the 11-50 ranked altcoins. You can find our detailed analysis in the rotation section.

ETHBTC chart 4 hours

6 Market Cap Overview

Figure 4: Market capitalisation overview; Data source: Coinmarketcap

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data Source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

Source Section 2 Market Analysisvision&

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