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27 juin 2019

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report CW 26

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Trader chez Crypto Broker AG

A propos de l'auteur

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor, with extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

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Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

Glossary

1 Rotation Analysis

Altcoins are getting hammered.

The outperformance of bitcoin versus altcoins is astonishing. We are talking about an additional 20 – 30% negative performance across the altcoin sector (see Table 1). The volatility of altcoins has in a way plateaued, whereas the volatility of bitcoin has gone up (see Figure 2).

In terms of correlation (see Figure 3), all are glued, as expected, to the upper right corner, so there is no chance of altcoin outperformance.

There is no sign of any altcoin rally being around the corner anytime soon. We are staying overweight bitcoin.

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

June 2019 futures will expire tomorrow.

We would like to point out that looking at the June 2019 basis does not make a lot of sense as this contract will expiry tomorrow. Therefore, we will focus on the September 2019 figures.

The picture is very similar to last week. All bases are nicely in contango (the future is trading higher than spot). This is driven mainly by the bitcoin basis, which is also trading aggressively in contango.

Next week, we will have the December 2019 basis included for the Bitmex XBTUSD futures. Other than that, there is nothing more to add.

Figure 1: Altcoin Futures Basis Overview

 

3 Top Ten Comparison

Table 1: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

Table 2: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

Figure 2: Volatility comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

Figure 3: Correlation comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

Figure 4: Data source: Bitfinex; Chartsystem: Tradingview

Oh boy… What a massacre!

We almost traded down to the lows of mid-May at 0.024550. No other coin can follow the pace of bitcoin right now. We expect to see some consolidation happening in the support zone.

As an exception, we will zoom out to the daily chart just to show you how bearish ETHBTC is on the bigger picture. We are trading within a large descending triangle, where we have already touched the lower leg three times.

If 0.024550 breaks, we expect another aggressive push to the downside, with a first target at around 0.019000. Please keep in mind that this is a long-term view.

 

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

Figure 5: Market capitalisation overview; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

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Download the Rotation Report as a PDF here.

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