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28 novembre 2019

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report Week 48

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Senior Trader chez Crypto Broker AG

A propos de l'auteur

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor, with extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

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Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

Glossary


1 Rotation Analysis

Being out of touch with the market

Currently, I am running behind the market or you could call it bad luck with the timing. But I am definitely not feeling the market these past few days. So, I am trying to look at it form a fresh perspective.

When I browse across all our indicators I see not much positive momentum for altcoins. Starting at the ETHBTC chart which has under performed for the time being. Moving further to the altcoin basis which shows a picture of not much demand for leveraged positions in those coins. But having said that as we are close to the expiry this was sort of expected. MACD’s and the advanced decline lines are turning into a more bearish direction.

The last piece of the puzzle are the three charts below. There it does not look good for the Alt index. We are in a potential rising wedge which is a bearish formation. The price is currently sitting on the lower leg of that wedge. A break to the downside would confirm the pattern and open the way 62 and then further down to 58. The Mid index looks a little better. Here we were able to make new highs but are trending lower since then. We even pushed through the support/resistance line at around 58. The Shit index is the one that looks the most promising. If we are able to take the last high out and push through the 77 level we have a chance to see a trend reversal.

View the Charts: Altcoin index (4-hour) |  Midcap index (4-hour)  |  Shitcoin index (4-hour)

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

The basis market took a proper hit with BTC$ dropping from 8k down to 6.5k. The biggest basis moves happened in the backend (Mar20 contracts). We believe this indicates that some leveraged longs had to close their position. For the overall state of the market this is a good thing. We are in a more healthy state now after the washout.

In general the Dec19 basis will not move much anymore as we are just four weeks away from expiry. Most of the altcoin basis are also at around the flat point (or zero percent).

There is not much more we can read out of those basis figures. We need to wait till we get the new expiries (Mar20) for the altcoin futures, which should happen in roughly two weeks.

Figure 1: Altcoin futures basis overview

 

3 Top Ten Comparison

Table 1: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

Table 2: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

 

Figure 2: Volatility comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

Figure 3: Correlation comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

 

Figure 4: Data source: Bitfinex; Chartsystem: Tradingview

ETHBTC is not going to plan

We broke through the bullish trend line and also through the Ichimoku cloud and our first support line at 0.02072.

Nevertheless, we are still within our trade setup with the stop just below 0.01875. But conviction for this trade took a hit on the back of the price action we have seen over the past few days. We will regain some confidence if we push back up above the 0.02072 support/resistance line and in a second step also through the Ichimoku cloud.

View the charts: ETHBTC 4h chart

 

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

 

Figure 5: Market capitalisation overview; Data source: Coinmarketcap

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

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Download the Rotation Report as a PDF here.

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