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05 décembre 2019

Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report Week 49

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Senior Trader chez Crypto Broker AG

A propos de l'auteur

This is our Crypto Broker Weekly Rotation Report, directly from the Crypto Broker trading floor, with extensive insights into the crypto asset market, including quantitative data analysis, macro market comments, technical chart analysis, and rotation (sector) analysis. A PDF version of the report can be found at the bottom of this page.

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Contents

1 Rotation Analysis

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

3 Top Ten Comparison

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

Glossary


1 Rotation Analysis

Market seems to be indecisive.

In general, the market moves have been in the range of approx. 10% and are highly correlated to bitcoin. The support and resistance lines of roughly 7,000 and 7,800 seem to be holding pretty well. It is definitively not easy to follow the market’s intra-day spikes. Therefore, it would be recommendable to either take short term intra-day positions with a high degree of discipline, or to step back and simply watch closely.

The indicators in altcoins show slightly negative signs. Overall volatility has not moved much and remains high. Moving closer to the (Dec19) expiry the basis has normalised substantially, and has moved towards the spot. MACDs and the advanced decline lines are rather neutral in bitcoin and coins ranked within the Top Ten. Coins ranked between 10 and 50 indicate a clear negative scenario.

Please see the charts below to create your own opinion on the choice of coins ranked in the Top 50. Currently, the focus will be on bitcoin, the (Dec19) expiry, and the year end. Overall, many risk positions have been closed already and reduced by the market players over the past few weeks. Therefore, this could most probably result in erratic price moves.

View the Charts: Altcoin index (4-hour) |  Midcap index (4-hour)  |  Shitcoin index (4-hour)

2 Altcoin Futures Basis Analysis

Overall, the basis market moved towards fair value, especially for LTC,BCH,EOS, and TRX. The backend (Mar20) contracts behaved similarly as the front month (Dec19) did. Open positions have continuously been closed towards expiry. The market will observe how the basis between (Dec19) and (Mar20) develops and increases or decreases risk. Last week’s washout definitively put the market in a more neutral situation.

The (Dec19) expiry is approaching, and the basis should not move further from the spot anymore with only three weeks to go. It will be important to observe the altcoin(Mar20) basis.

So far, there is not much to add. Let’s wait until the new expiries (Mar20) of the altcoin futures, which will happen soon.

Figure 1: Altcoin futures basis overview

 

3 Top Ten Comparison

Table 1: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

Table 1: Data source: Coinmarketcap; change to last week in parentheses

 

4 Volatility and Correlation Comparison

 

Figure 2: Volatility comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

Figure 3: Correlation comparison; Data source: Coinmarketcap

 

5 ETHBTC 4h Technical Chart Analysis

 

Figure 4: Data source: Bitfinex; Chartsystem: Tradingview

ETHBTC is not going to plan

We broke through the bullish trend line and also through the Ichimoku cloud and our first support line at 0.02072.

Nevertheless, we are still within our trade setup with the stop just below 0.01875. But conviction for this trade took a hit on the back of the price action we have seen over the past few days. We will regain some confidence if we push back up above the 0.02072 support/resistance line and in a second step also through the Ichimoku cloud.

View the charts: ETHBTC 4h chart

 

6 Market Capitalisation Overview

 

Figure 5: Market capitalisation overview; Data source: Coinmarketcap

Glossary

Advance Decline Line – the Advance Decline Line shows the ratio of coins for which the market cap increased relative to the market cap of BTC for each day.
ATH – all time high (maximum lookback period of 730 days).
Data source – tables and charts are based on daily close prices provided by Coinmarketcap.
EWMA – exponentially weighted moving average.
MACD – moving average convergence/divergence is a popular technical indicator to identify trends in the underlying instrument. It consists of the MACD and signal line, and the area shown in the background. The MACD line (strong) is the difference of two exponential moving averages, which are defined by the first and second parameter of the indicator. The signal line (weak) is the exponential moving average of the MACD line defined by the third parameter. The area in the background illustrates the difference between the MACD line and the signal line.
Pearson Correlation – quantifies the linear relationship between two variables.
Spearman Correlation – quantifies the monotonic relationship between two variables. As such, the Spearman Correlation is based on the ranked values of each variable and is used to detect non-linear relationships between the two.

More information about and contact details for Crypto Broker AG are here.

Download the Rotation Report as a PDF here.

 

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