Let’s see what the charts look like this week:
So far, the upmove looks healthy and we see no reason why the trend should change.
When looking a bit deeper at the structure of the BTC market, we see a pretty stretched situation in margin shorts versus longs. The difference, or ratio, has reached levels where we have seen an impulsive upward reaction to the price.
The medium-term bullish case will be invalidated when we break through the 4,850 support level. For the long term, 4,250 needs to hold.
On the upside, the resistance will come in at around 6,400, which is one of the largest liquidity pools we have (see volume bars on the right-hand side).
Our ascending triangle was invalidated when we traded back down to the 150 level. But the lower leg (upward moving trend line) is holding well, also in combination with the upper bound of the Ichimoku cloud.
We are getting close to the resistance zone again, which marks the 200 level. There are a few calls out from other traders, that they will take some profit from their long positions.
After we hit the lower band of our resistance zone, we came straight back down and found support on the upper bound of the Ichimoku cloud. Now, we seem to be floating between the two zones (support & resistance).
The overall trend remains well intact and we expect to retest the resistance zone.
This is a good example of a disaster waiting to happen. We have printed six consecutive lower highs over the past 18 months and are approaching the support zone of 0.24 – 0.28.
To give this pair hope, we need to print a higher high – with a break above 0.39.
We tried twice to break through the resistance zone and failed. That was reason enough to take a break and retrace down to the upper bound of the Ichimoku cloud.
But the pair wants to go higher. We bounced quickly off the Ichimoku cloud and went straight back up into the resistance zone. Let’s see how the next attack goes.
Our target was reached and we moved even lower and just turned shy of the upper bound of our support zone.
The market is still in a down trend, but now is not the time to initiate new short positions. The pair has already shown twice that it can react very sharply around those low levels.
The resistance level is around 0.033.
Until the beginning of April, it was everyone’s darling and we witnessed a healthy uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows.
Towards the end of April, we broke that sequence and printed a lower low and a lower high.
Looking at the bigger picture, we need to hold at around 0.012 to keep the bullish scenario alive. But to be honest, I would like to see the price not go any lower from the current levels and not leave the Ichimoku cloud.
This pair tricked us big time. The ascending triangle looked valid for about two weeks and then we broke back lower through the upper leg of the triangle (0.00001350).
Now, we are sitting right at the danger zone, which is around 0.00001100. Further down, not much trading volume was happening, and therefore we could drop really fast if we push lower from here.
To get bullish again, we need to break above the 0.00001350 level.
There is a good chance that we are in a massive potential falling wedge. However, to confirm, we would need to touch both sides one more time.
For the medium term, the pair looks bearish with the direction to the lower leg of the potential wedge.Lire la suite