10 septembre 2019

Technical Analysis Tuesday: signs of systemic changes in altcoins

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Senior Trader chez Crypto Broker AG

A propos de l'auteur

Before we dive into the charts, I would like to share an observation I made yesterday night while browsing through the charts in preparation for TA-Tuesday.

It was one of those brief moments: I was sitting in front of my screens and BTC$ experienced one of its many +/- 1% moves within 1-2 minutes.

Usually, my entire TradingView app would be blinking like a Christmas tree, but not this time. Most of the altcoins versus USD did not blink at all, let alone show any moves.

Since kids and wife were deep  in sleep I decided to put some thought into this… And I came up with the following possible explanations.

Maybe the altcoins are going through some major systemic changes. For example, we just recently saw the FTX platform launching a bunch of altcoin futures plus the three altcoin index futures.

Roughly at the same time, Binance started introducing margin trading for various coins, including borrowing and lending. And maybe one of the bigger events will be the shut-out of US customers on September 12th. The last event that came to mind was the new maturities of BitMEX altcoin futures, which will go live on September 13th.

For what it’s worth, those are my reasons as to why altcoins are possibly behaving weird.

Now, let’s move on to the charts…

BTC$ (daily)
You can pretty much copy/paste last week’s comment and switch the symmetrical triangle with a potential ascending triangle here.

Topside level to watch is 11.2k and on the downside 9.1k. We flipped some longs at around 10.9k and are waiting for another leg lower below 10k to buy them back.

ETH$ (daily)
I felt it might be worth drawing an additional horizontal line at around the $166 level. This line started back in September 2018 and marked the trigger point of a 50-60% sell-off in under 1 month’s time.

It is also the level that we bounced off of a few times now. The way ETH is trading right now, we might even creep back up to the resistance zone before we head lower again. Because, so far, I do not see a clear turnaround pattern.

Gold (weekly)
We see some topping out behaviour when looking at the last three weekly bars. It seems to be time to correct some of the parabolic upmove we have been seeing since June.

The $1,400 would be a deep correction, but not unreasonable. The uptrend is still intact, though, and therefore I expect it to resume and reach the target of the triangle at around $1,620.

CNH$ (daily)
After we took out the first warning sign level of $7.15, we dropped fairly quickly down to the second level of $7.11, but have now stopped there for the time being.

In terms of wave structure, the correction could actually go as deep as $7.00, and the uptrend would be still intact. So far, I do not see a turnaround, and expect the trend to resume.

LTC$ (daily)
Litecoin proved me wrong (so far). We bounced twice off of the $64 level and jumped even higher towards the $72 level, which was the breakout point from the bearish flat (last pattern).

The overall bearish sentiment is still intact and I am sticking to my call that we will resume the downtrend and attack again at the $64 level.

BCH$ (daily)
No further developments since last week’s comment. The possible Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern is still in the cards.

Altcoin$ (4h)
I have to apologise, but my $605 level was rubbish. I honestly do not know why I put down that level.

I have redrawn the line at $615. This was the breakout level on August 28th and it seems to be holding ever since as resistance.

On the support side, the $555 level has established some significance and will be my next catalyst for adding more shorts.  The stop level for short positions is pretty far away. I am calling it at around $675.

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