Here is the update for this week’s TA Tuesday.
First, my call to watch gold and inflation expectation was only partially correct. Gold saw a good move higher (roughly 5% since last week), but the inflation expectation was a great deal lower in the US.
Bitcoin followed gold and stocks, which both moved higher on a weekly basis.
I have been pulled back and forth between an ascending triangle and a rising wedge. In the end, it looks like we have ourselves an ascending triangle.
The breakout level was 7k, which was a tough nut to crack. I believe there were some large idle sell orders in place, probably from miners, that needed to be cleared first.
The „fireworks“ move I was looking for after the breakout did not materialise. We might even see a retest of the 7k level before we move higher towards 7.8k.
This would mean having fully reversed the catastrophic down move from March 12-13. The 4h Ichimoku cloud is pretty bullish, with a wide green body. However, the daily Ichimoku cloud is still bearish, but we can see that the upper band comes in at around 7.2k, and the cloud itself (a very thin one) might be penetrated in a few days.
Last week I wasn’t too sure where this would go. I felt that $135 was an important level, and it actually played out that way. But I did not see such a strong reaction coming. At least not on Tuesday when I wrote the report.
On Thursday, we did take a closer look at ETHBTC, as we always do in our Rotation Report, and I felt that ETH was on the way to turning around.
The move in ETH was really strong yesterday with a 20% gain over 24 hours. We basically moved above the $135 level and never looked back. We tackled $152 and shot up to the last resistance I had on my chart at $170.
Some people claim this is due to Vitalik’s announcement that a test-net for ETH 2.0 will be ready as early as May. Let’s see if ETH is able to hold its gains. I would still consider a pullback towards $152 healthy.
This index has shown remarkable performance since the March 12-13. We are almost back to the breakout level of 550 points. Now, this level will be the resistance to break. On the daily chart, the bearish Ichimoku cloud has its lower band right there.
Not as impressive as the Alt index, but still a steady recovery despite underperforming BTC. The 500 points level will be the resistance to crack in order to gain some fresh momentum to the upside.
This index really underperformed BTC. The swings we saw during the March 12-13 selloff were absolutely brutal, and we have not recovered as we did on the Alt or Mid indices. Nevertheless, we managed to push through the Ichimoku cloud on the 4h chart, and also took some positive momentum with us when ETH had its day yesterday. We are in the middle of a very wide range of 450 to 660 points.