My claim in last week‘ report was both right and wrong. We did attempt to break higher, but failed. However, the failure did not result in as deep a sell-off as I was expecting. There is continuous buying interest coming in on the physical spot front (mainly on Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Kraken).
The leverage skew is still on the buying side. We tend to see more and bigger liquidation tickets when the market swiftly moves lower compared to aggressive spikes to the upside.
The Ichimoku cloud has been a good indicator lately and was well respected on this upmove from 6k up to 10k. The cloud is still bullish and the price well above it, but we need to see a decisive move to the upside sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the cloud will cross into bearish territory.
Maybe the actual change difficulty could be the next event to watch: the outcome could be a surprise to everyone (including the miners). But having said that, you can see the re-calibration live on this page
A quick dip, some consolidation, and back up we went. Basically, we are back to square one. The pattern looks fairly similar to that of bitcoin. We always find demand when the price moves lower sharply, but then we seem to run out of steam when we should be reaching new highs. So far, we failed to make new highs as is the case with bitcoin.
The Ichimoku cloud has already turned bearish, but it is just on the verge of converting back into a bullish one. For the time being, I see the $200 level as a first support and then there is a more serious one around $190.
I am expecting some extra fuel to the upside when we take out the recent high around $225.
I was nervous when we quickly dipped through the lower leg of the triangle. We stopped right at the larger support we have had on our chart for quite some time now: at 0.02050.
I changed that lower leg to a dotted line since the rules have been violated. The consequence is that the pattern turns into a descending triangle. But to me it is more imminent that the importance of the support at around 0.02050 is now greater.
We think it is showing a nice risk/reward ratio, and have, therefore, established a long position in LINK. We expect the price to hold the trendline or at least the horizontal support at around 0.000370.
The Ichimoku cloud is giving the price a hard time to break higher. Something has to give way: either the trendline or the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud.
Tezos is showing a similar setup to LINK. We are long on current levels with a stop at around 0.0002450.
The Ichimoku cloud is still bullish and the price was able to push into the cloud. The next resistance to the upside comes in at around 0.000320.Weiterlesen