At the time of writing, $BTC is trading at $43,548 (-1.14% in 7 days), $ETH is trading at $3,023 (-2.92% in 7 days), and the spread is trading at 0.06941 (-1.78% in 7 days).
The main crypto indices are reflecting the consolidation phase after the momentum broke last Thursday and US CPI hit 7.5% YoY (40-year high) and 0.6% MoM.
Altcoin index: -4.03% in 7 days, Midcoin index: – 7.67% in 7 days, and Shitcoin index: -8.77% in 7 days.
What I am looking the most at in terms of TradFi is the VIX Index – the so-called “fear index” – which is currently trading at 28.35 (23.98% in 7 days), and, probably, reflects the future tail risk events.
Spot cryptocurrency prices and the crypto derivatives market are waiting for a nudge.
In macro terms, the Fed’s underreaction to inflation will drive risky assets to higher prices and vice versa.
As for geopolitical tensions: bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, have followed their own path in the past, and have indeed performed well when there were geopolitical tensions. Therefore, we might also expect an increase in demand. However, the change in landscape has made bitcoin fragile due to the volatility of the US stock market, and it is now behaving as a risky growth-oriented stock.
$BTC realised volatility is dropping WoW; 3-month daily volatility annualised is 63.04% and correspond to the 25th percentile for medium measurement windows.
The Implied Volatility moved a little higher (66.86%), and the term structure remains almost identical WoW.
As the plot suggests, since the beginning of 2022, $BTC has not really moved.
The key resistance levels are still between 45k-47k, and the key support levels are at 42k-38k.
In other news: