In terms of price we have not moved much since writing last week’s TA-Tuesday report. But we did see some violent moves, which changed our picture to the dark side.
The first indication of a 4h trend change is a push through the Ichimoku cloud. The second one is the cloud turning bearish while the price is still below the cloud.
I have to admit it is still too early to tell, as the current cloud is very thin and could switch to either side very quickly. Plus, the price does not need to move very far to push through and end up on the other side.
What is starting to look more clear is the support/resistance flip line. I reckon it will come in at around 9.8k, with the peak of the liquidity pool (refer to the right-hand side) and the upper and lower band of the Ichimoku cloud.
As long we stay below 9.8k, I am looking for lower levels with a first proper support at around 9.1k. In case of breaking that one, I see more buyers coming in at around 8.5k.
We have mentioned the stretched basis a few times and also that it giving us the indication that the market will have troubles to rally in such an environment. But maybe this is just the „new“ normal in a high time-frame bull market. Either way it will be interesting to see how this basis situation will unravel when the Mar20 contract comes to expiry and big market-making houses and investors need to roll their positions.
The slowdown has accelerated in terms of price upmoves. So far we have seen a healthy price consolidation between $240-$290.
Yes, agreed … the range is pretty wide, but it just reflects the increased volatility ETH$ has been experiencing over the past few weeks and month.
Compared to BTC$ I am less concerned with the price being under pressure or dropping too much from here. We are still above the bullish Ichimoku cloud, which is also (or still) very wide. But it is clear that we need to take out $290 on a daily closing basis to gain fresh momentum to the upside.
On the downside, I will start becoming concerned when we come close to the $250-$240 level.
Since I am more bullish on ETH$ compared to BTC$, I thought it would make sense to have a look at the cross ETHBTC.
We experienced a healthy upmove over the past few weeks, confirming the strength of ETH. The chart continues to look strong for ETH, but I think we need to be patient until we see the next move.
0.0250 is the level at which I will revise my bullish stance.
Last week we had a look at LINKBTC, but I think that for the sake of comparison I will switch to LINK$ today.
The pattern looks very similar.
We did break out of a very large symmetrical triangle that is over nine month’s old. The target of this triangle was reached when we touched the high of $4.80 (see line chart below)
What worries me a little for the bulls is that the top we recently saw also matches the top (wicks) from end of June (see bar chart below)
I have no strong view on LINK$, and therefore would only establish a new long position when we break $4.85 on a daily closing basis.
The tide has turned and the market looks weak for the 25 mid-cap altcoins. We are now just on the last support line before we drop another 50-60 points (8%-10%).
If people panic we may easily see the index move down to 550, which is a 20% drop.Weiterlesen