31 März 2020

TA Tuesday: Is Bitcoin Transforming Into a Store of Value?

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Senior Trader bei Crypto Broker AG

Über den Autor

Before we dive into the crypto charts, I would like to show you an update on inflation expectations in the US. Have a look at the ETF below.

Proshares Trust Inflation Expectations ETF

Since March 17, it has moved up by about 20%. We are basically back up and re-testing the breakout level of the December 2019/January 2020 support level. If we see gold and inflation expectation moving higher rapidly, I expect to see a similar move for BTC$.

BTC$ (4h)
We tested the 5.9k level again, which is the lower leg of the large symmetrical triangle we mentioned last week. The bounce came quickly and we were back up in the 6.6k area again.

The 7k level has proven to be a stubborn resistance. I think it is the last defence line for the bears. After that, we will be back up in the 8k region very quickly. This would push us back above the daily Ichimoku cloud and paint a more neutral picture.

It was a tough market to play in, but now we seem to have established a good range between 5.9k and 7k. Play that range in small and have your breakout trades/orders ready when prices push through it.

ETH$ (4h)
Things are not looking too promising. The bearish Ichimoku cloud is very large, and prices have barely pushed into it. We are still at the very bottom of the band.

$135 seems to be the PoC (point of control) that the bulls need to see taken out to the upside. On the support side, it is not that clear, but my take is to have no position, or a small short one when we break $120.

I will now chart the three FTX altcoin indices for an overview of the smaller coins. And tomorrow, in our monthly Sector Analysis Report, we will do a deep dive into these indices.

Alt$ (4h)
We have seen a good 40% recovery from the lows, but we are still struggling to push through the Ichimoku cloud. The level to break on a daily closing basis for the bulls is 460.

Support comes in at just around 400.

Mid$ (4h)
The picture here is very similar to what we see in the Alt$. The recovery is roughly 40%, but now we seem to be failing at getting additional fresh momentum.

Shit$ (4h)
Same story here.

As you can see, these indices are almost trading in sync. The high correlation will also be pointed out in our weekly Rotation Report. If you break things down further into the individual sectors, you will see some outstanding performers. But more on this topic tomorrow.