27 April 2021

TA Tuesday: Is there an ETHBTC breakout in play?

Mike Schwitalla

Mike Schwitalla

Senior Trader bei Crypto Broker AG

Über den Autor

In our first chart, we can clearly see that ETHBTC has been in an uptrend since the beginning of 2020.


With the renewed momentum that ETH experienced in recent days, this trend seems to have even strengthened. Additionally, the important resistances of 0.04075 and 0.045 were overcome. What should now stand in the way of a price trend north to the trend line 0.070 or even towards 0.085?


I have seen some recent technical analyses ALL of which figure in a breakout – to the upside or even towards a new ATH. However, I am always wary when I hear the market singing from the same song sheet.


Therefore, I would now like to offer an alternative opinion.

In the second chart, you can see that the ETH vs BTC ratio is not depicted as a ratio, but rather as a linear ratio (BTCUSD-25*ETHUSD). Pairing this residual with a Bollinger band creates interesting pair trade ideas. As you can see, prices below the Bollinger band have historically been interesting long entries (and vice versa). At the moment, we are greatly below the Bollinger band, which may indicate a short-term pullback in ETHBTC.

Therefore, I personally do not see a breakout in ETHBTC towards 0.070, but rather a likely short-term setback towards 0.04075 (please see Chart 1).