It has not really been an eventful week in terms of price movements.
There are quite a few key points coming together on the daily chart. E.g. we have a downward channel with the topside very close to the current price. Then we see the large upper leg of the potential symmetrical triangle and the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud closing in with the price right on the baseline.
Let’s drill down into the 4h chart…
We are still in the process of turning that bearish cloud. The last attempt was in late June, with an impressive failure that pushed the price down nearly 10%. The set-up is very similar to today, with the price touching the upper end of the channel and breaking through the upper band of the cloud.
In terms of the wave structure, we are still in a phase of lower highs, but not really printing new lower lows. To break this structure, we need to reach a new higher high above 9.8k.
When I look at the heatmap for BTC$ I can only see the consistent large bid orderblock on Bitfinex. All the other exchanges seem to have more market makers who are placing their orders around the price. But yesterday we saw some impressive bids on OkEx and Huobi at around the price of 9.2k (a total of almost 2,000 BTC). Those bids are gone now, but they were in the orderbook for several hours.
The $215 support is holding like a pro. We bounced nicely off of that level right back up to the upper leg of the potential symmetrical triangle.
Now, we just need to get the $250 resistance out of the way. In case this happens, we will see a new higher low ($215), and can attack the $290 level, which is the last higher high in the bigger picture.
On the downside, $215 has become even more important as support. It needs to hold for my bullish stance.
On the 4h chart, we need to see that Ichimoku cloud turn bullish (green). It would be nice not to trade below $235 and take out that upper leg of the potential triangle. If we manage to do that there is not much in the way in terms of price liquidity, but we will have a closer look at that with the heatmaps below.
On Bitfinex, we have been seeing a steady sell orderblock since the begining of June: at around the $250 level. This confirms the resistance we mentioned earlier in this report.
There are some very large bids on OkEx for the September futures: roughly 500k ETH between $235-$238. These bids have been there since last night when we pushed through the $240 level. I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on those.