We look at bitcoin this today, given the overnight moves.
Even though I was wrong in my „leaning towards the short side“ assessment, the guidance along the Ichimoku cloud held very well.
The baseline (blue line) never pushed into the cloud. The price never pushed lower than the lower band of the cloud. These would have been triggers to go short. Instead, the rally continued on to almost $35k.
Now, we are in a deeper correction phase. The baseline pushed into the Ichimoku cloud. The price went through the baseline and even through the cloud. Also, the cloud turned bearish, or is at least flip-flopping around.
The overnight move down from 33k caught me rather off guard. With yesterday’s price action around the baseline, I was confident that we would have a chance of moving higher. In hindsight, I should have put more weight on the push through the baseline and into the cloud.
It looks like we are entering another consolidation phase. This is another typical crypto one, where you have the high and low almost 30% apart from each other (27.5k – 35k). We are in the middle of it, which makes it the most dangerous place for putting in positions.
The market remains very thin in terms of visible liquidity. You can get a good overview from the okotoki app (see image below). I think the market will stay choppy with profits and losses changing hands quickly. My advice is to try to sit on your hands for a bit…