Bitcoin is doing what it does (second) best… Chopping around and taking money from short-term traders. Over the past week we have not seen much in terms of price change. Since last Tuesday, it has been a nice nearly $1,000 round trip.
When I look at the chart, we have lost some of the bearish sentiment we had last week but not convincing enough for a position either way. The wide range is $9.8k – $11.2k. I’ll try to play with that and keep the total outright position reasonably small.
The daily chart shows a very similar picture but it is nicer in terms of visualisation. The price is just inside the Ichimoku cloud, which is starting to get tighter. Breaking out of the cloud would be my first warning sign and a trigger to slowly position into that direction for a trend that will go on for a little longer than just a week…
The current price developments are not convincing either here. We flipped around the $360 level a few times, but without any impulsive moves to either side. On the very wide, I call the range $290-$390.
This didn’t work out either. We are dancing around my s/r flip level of 0.03300, which is probably not such a strong one when the price just moves around it. I am still leaning bearish into that pair with low conviction.
Well… the price went below my level and straight back up again. I cannot touch it right now; I have no feel for what the next big trend might be, and I’m also not clear about the entry level for putting on a position.
So far the „go long call“ has worked. $3.70 is still the level at which to take off the longs if we break below. On the upside, I am looking for a quick move in case we push above the $4.80 level due to the price/volume vacuum in that region (see the volume bars on the right-hand side). The target is around $5.40.
$7.30 seems to be holding the bulls in check. The downside level of $4 was never tested. Potentially, we are in a bottom building process. I will hold that call as long we are do not break below $5.50. If we start to fly, $7.30 is the resistance to break with a target towards $9.
$7 held and triggered a strong reaction back up to $11. I’ll use the $10 as a psychological level (double digit price…). If it holds, the pattern looks like a consolidation after a strong upmove and I would expect the trend to resume.
We are back in the high price/volume zone at around $0.56. It would be nice for the bulls to see the $0.60 get taken out. If this happens, we might see more pushes to the upside on the back of breaking out of the Ichimoku cloud, plus the rather low price/volume area. A move to $0.70 is possible.
On a daily closing basis the $22k held and triggered a fear reaction back up to $32k. A growing concern is the potential shoulder-head-shoulder with the neckline at around $22k. In case this plays out, the target of this pattern would be in the $2k area!