29 Oktober 2019

Technical Analysis Tuesday: Key Moves to Watch This Week

Patrick Heusser

Patrick Heusser

Senior Trader bei Crypto Broker AG

Über den Autor

With BTC in beast mode, we have some interesting chart set-ups. Due to the size of the move, we will start with some coins on a weekly timeframe and then zoom in closer.

BTC$ (weekly)
The 10.5k level is growing in importance. It converges with the 38.2 Fibbonacci level of the upmove and it is at the topside of the Ichimoku cloud, which means that it is slowly but surely getting to the point of crossing from bearish to bullish.

In case we are not heading straight for the 10.5k and new highs, I have two important levels on the chart. The first support at 7.5k and the make or break support of 6k.

Let’s now zoom in to the daily chart.

When I zoom in to the daily chart I switch the price source to BitMEX, and, therefore, the Fibbonacci levels look slightly different. Nevertheless, the 10.5k level is highly important (red dotted line).

Also, on the daily Ichomoku cloud that level shows importance as it is at the upper band of the cloud. However, it will take some more time for the cloud to cross into a bullish set-up.

The first price attempts have already been made. We are pushing against the lower band of the cloud, which currently comes in at around 9.5k. It will act as resistance, but my confidence will not increase until we have pushed in and managed to print a daily closing in it. Then I will be sure that we will attack the 10.5k level sooner rather than later.

For any possible setbacks, I regard the 9k level as support. In case we break it, I will turn my position from long to flat.

BTC$ (1h)
I distributed a quick analysis yesterday on a 1h timeframe basis, where I made the case that the Ichimoku cloud should act as support for the price in the current consolidation phase.

So far it has worked, but not as well as I thought it would. Nevertheless, if it works out as planned we should see a price increase over the next 12 hours towards 9.8k, which would get us over that cloud hump.

ETH$ (daily)
The Ichimoku cloud is working its magic and is acting as resistance for the price. All the lines are currently converging just below the $200 level, and $160 proved once again to be a solid support.

The „big relief rally“ of BTC was not able to change the overall bearish sentiment in ETH. I am sticking to my resistance level of $222, which needs to be taken out before I will even start thinking about putting in long ETH$ trades.

Breaking the support at $160 will trigger my entry into short positions.

Gold$ (weekly)
Gold is still taking its time to consolidate after the breakout of the triangle.

$CNH (daily)
There are some slight changes to last week’s report. We are sitting on the upper band of the Ichimoku cloud. I am still expecting a bigger reaction, but am now leaning more towards the downside.

LTC$ (daily)
Once again, Litecoin was using my full range. It just touched $47.25, which is the low of my support zone, and then shot up to the $64 resistance level. It is now in no man’s land.

I have no strong opinion here, and plan to stay out of it.

BCH$ (daily)
Is this the re-test of the shoulder-head-shoulder neckline?

It is hard to say, and based on chart textbooks, it is not clear either. But what we do know, and this might sound a bit „cheap“, is that if we break it to the upside the whole formation will be invalid.

Nevertheless, the neckline has grown in importance due to the liquidity pool level (volume bars on the right-hand side).

I slightly favour the downside, hence a confirmation of the shoulder-head-shoulder formation.

Altcoin$ (4h)
At least we smelled that there was something in the bushes when we mentioned that we were seeing choppy sideways consolidation.

It was a fear’s push to the upside that topped out at the newly drawn downward sloping trendline (black). It is now the third time that we are touching it. In case the price gets rejected, the importance of this line will grow, and it will force me to look at short position set-ups.